shrug-l: Direct Impact Frequency for Tropical Systems in all
counties based on ENSO Phase - (Phase 1)
watry at steam.coaps.fsu.edu
Fri Jun 29 07:47:38 EDT 2007
We just completed Phase I which covers all 67 counties in Florida (both
coastal and Inland Counties).
Phase II will include Alabama and Georgia
Phase III will be MS, LA, TX
Phase IV will be SC, NC, VA, MD. DE
PHASE V will be NJ, NT, CT, RI, MA, NH, ME
PHASE VI Inland Southern States
PHASE VII Inland Northern States
The Impact Frequency is calculated for
1. Land-falling Tropical Systems (TS, H1,H2,H3,H4,H5) based on 6 Hourly
2. Systems that move from another county, through the county of interest and
then into another county
3. Systems that move from another county, through the county of interest to
4. The systems that come ashore in a nearby county and affects the county of
interest but the eye does not enter the county are ignored. (This is
partially due to the lack of wind radius on earlier systems).
The Direct Impact Frequency "1 / 5" indicates that statistically one year
will have a Direct Impact and then 4 years will pass without another Direct
Impact in that county. The Impact Frequency "1 in 23" under El Nino
indicates that one El Nino year will have a Direct Impact and then 22 El
Nino Years will pass without another Direct Impact in that county.
The Return Frequency "1 / 0" indicates that no Direct Impacts was recorded
for that county since 1851 during that particular ENSO Phase.
The years are colored based on ENSO Phase. Red is El Nino or the Warm Phase,
Green is the Neutral Phase and Blue is La Nina or Cold Phase.
The following symbols apply:
1. 1 is a Category One Storm that move on-shore into the county or a
2. (1) is a Category One Storm that moves from an another county into
the county of interest and then out through a third county.
3.  is a Category One Storm that moves from an another county into
the county of interest and then moved off-shore over the coastline of the
county of interest.
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Gary L. Watry
Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
FSU / COAPS
Johnson Building, RM 215
2035 East Paul Dirac Drive
Tallahassee, Florida 32306-2840
Phone (850) 645-7457
E-Mail: watry at coaps.fsu.edu
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